I was hanging out talking politics with a guy and he brought up a good scenario – what happens if Troy City Court Judge Chris Maier wins the soon to be open Rensselaer County Court seat?

Of course the Council will have to appoint his replacement but this group of Democrats almost came to blows when they had to re-appoint Rick Mason city marshal. And that’s a part time job worth maybe $15,000 to $20,000 a year for delivering eviction notices. This is a full time, fairly high profile judgeship worth at least six figures and is seen as a viable stepping stone for higher courts.

Obviously that’s a jump because Maier will first have to win a three-way Democratic primary with Rensselaer City Court Judge Carmello Laquidara and attorney Brian Premo and then has to get by Republican Debra Young who will have at least three lines – the R, I and C – and might get the Working Families Party line too if those petitions withstand a court challenge.

 But, I’d have to say Maier is the early front runner because he has done a decent job in what is the busiest court in the county and he’s a Democrat from Troy – the largest city in the county with, logically, the largest number of Democrats. After checking with Vegas, the odds of him winning the primary stand at 3 to 1. Laquidara, since he’s a judge too and is from the City of Rensselaer where there are also a bunch of Democrats, comes in at 6 to 1, according to Vegas.

Premo has never been a judge but is a relatively high profile attorney. He is also embroiled in voter fraud and will be preparing for the next trial, which will likely commence sometime next month. The primary is Sept. 13 so that’s not going to leave a lot of time for campaigning. His client too, Board of Elections Commissioner Ed McDonough, will likely be tied up and have more important things on his mind than whether or not his attorney wins a judicial primary. The odds of Premo winning the primary, according to Vegas, stand at 10 to 1.

Meanwhile, Debra Young is the only Republican in the race and she will have the Conservative and Independence Party lines too. I’ll hold off on giving odds for the general election until after the primary is decided.

Anyway, back to the original point of picking a replacement for Maier – the Council would have to do it within 10 days of a vacancy. It took them more than two months to re-appoint Mason with some on the Council, in particular Councilman Kevin McGrath, wanting him and others siding with Chair Tom Wade, who didn’t. There is no reason to believe those two factions have kissed and made up so should Maier win in November, there will be a battle.

Sure, there are all sorts of grumblings that Wade won’t be around after the committee re-organizes in September but I’m still thinking he will. Actually I’ll put the odds Wade hangs on as chair at 2 to 1. I’ll give the most talked about contender to take him out, Rabbit Riley, 10 to 1. Those odds will change dramatically depending on what happens to McDonough since he is one of the driving anti-Wade forces – if he’s convicted the odds that Wade stays moves to even money and if he’s found not guilty, they jump to 8 to 1.